Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It's been a tumultuous week for U.S. gamers, marked by a roller coaster of emotions. The excitement kicked off with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and games. However, the joy quickly turned to dismay when the $450 price tag for the console and the $80 price for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The roller coaster took another sharp turn this morning when Nintendo decided to delay pre-orders due to the sudden and sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on nearly every nation worldwide.

We've explored elsewhere the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these new tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. But the burning question on everyone's mind right now is, what will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when it comes to predicting the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on evidence and data. I've done this twice already this week. However, for the first time since I began interviewing analysts on such topics, every single one I spoke to was stumped. Some guessed that Nintendo might raise the price, while others thought they might not, but all emphasized the unprecedented chaos of the current situation. No one can accurately predict the moves of Nintendo, Trump, or anyone else in the coming days, weeks, or months.

With that significant caveat in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were split on their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the announcement, but the delay has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce price hikes, not only for the system but also for games and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if these sky-high tariffs are sustained, they leave Nintendo no choice. Would you be surprised to see the Switch 2 hit $500 for the base model? I wouldn't," he said. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariffs before setting prices.

Mat Piscatella, a senior analyst at Circana, also leaned towards price increases, though he emphasized the unprecedented and unpredictable nature of the situation. He noted that the tariffs' breadth and depth surprised everyone, not just consumers. Piscatella believes that Nintendo likely had some assumptions about tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than anticipated. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he said. He added that the U.S. might join other regions with historically higher game prices due to these tariffs.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts an increase in hardware prices, though he believes software might be less affected due to the dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, he noted that if a substantial tariff were introduced, companies like Nintendo would likely pass the cost onto consumers rather than absorb it.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, an NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. He thinks the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he said. He believes Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point but may be forced to reassess if the trade landscape worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, a games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if it raises prices further. He suggests that the company is in a difficult position after announcing the launch price. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. He predicts that Nintendo will hold off on changing the price until at least 2026, hoping for a resolution to the tariff situation. However, he acknowledges that everything is on the table now, and any price change could impact the brand and consumer perception at launch.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, a games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He pointed out his previous comments on Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions of Switch 2 games in certain markets. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned in my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs," he said.

Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the games industry, echoing warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes the tariffs will result in a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said. However, he noted the logistical challenges of moving entire supply chains to the U.S., especially given the current political climate. "We are living in...there’s no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," he concluded, criticizing the tariffs for increasing prices during a cost-of-living crisis and contradicting core economic principles.

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